Analysis of pulp and paper market (10.17-10.21)

Author:

National waste:

This week, under the influence of the weak sales of the base paper market, the price of waste paper lacked support, and the purchase price of some paper mills declined slightly. Among them, the markets in East China and North China were more active, with a decline of about 20-30 yuan/ton. The purchase price of waste paper in South China remained firm, and the purchase price of some paper mills rose slightly as needed, with a decline of 20-60 yuan/ton; Until the weekend, the waste paper market gradually stabilized. The expected range of waste paper raw material prices fluctuates mainly, showing a low shock trend as a whole, and the cost has limited impact on the base paper market. The profit space of the upstream packaging plant is under pressure, and the market is pessimistic in the later stage. It is expected that the market will continue to operate in a slightly volatile manner in the later stage.

At present, the reference price of mainstream paper: about 2000 yuan/ton for Grade A yellow paperboard, about 2050 yuan/ton for waste pages, and 2700-2900 yuan/ton for waste newspapers.

MEILIN

Packing paper:

This week, the price of the white paperboard market has dropped, the market demand is insufficient, and the consumption is lack of strong support; The downstream market demand of white paperboard did not meet expectations, and the implementation of the call for inflation was not ideal; The output of peripheral paper mills remained normal. The pressure on the market inventory still exists. After a period of adjustment, plus the high price of wood pulp, under the pressure of cost, the paper enterprises' attitude towards price support is enhanced, the market wait-and-see attitude is obvious, and there is no significant change in downstream demand.

Up to now, the average transaction price of the white cardboard market is 6300-6600 yuan/ton, and the low-end reference price is 5800-6300 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of whiteboard was temporarily stable, but the implementation of the price increase is still unclear. There is no obvious change in the downstream market demand for the time being. The oversupply of inventory has not eased. The market is flexible in trading and investment, and the actual price is mainly negotiated. The cost is still high, the prices of energy and pulp are still high, the profit space of paper mills is under pressure, the quotations of traders are confused, and the shipping prices of some paper mills are slightly adjusted. It is expected that the late market will be dominated by the price range of the whiteboard market. Most paper mills have a strong intention to stabilize the price in order to relieve the pressure of inventory or carry out shutdown maintenance in succession. This week, the market price of corrugated paper and cardboard fluctuated slightly. With the expected increase of spot supply, the orders of downstream packaging plants did not increase significantly, lacking the support of market demand, the trend of the North South was slightly different and there was a trend of large-scale paper mills leading the decline;

The main actual price is mainly negotiated. In order to stabilize the current price, mainstream paper mills will increase the original purchase price of waste paper. The transaction in the market was stable, and traders kept to follow the trend of the market. On the one hand, with the completion of the overhaul of most paper mills, the new capacity in South China will be put into production soon, and the output of base paper will increase significantly, so the market supply is relatively abundant; On the other hand, the current paper mill procurement mainly focuses on maintaining rigid demand, which has been lack of effective market demand support for the rise in the price of base paper. In the case of insufficient receipt of orders, some paper mills have seen an increase in price and a decline in price. It is expected that the corrugated and cardboard market will be dominated by weak consolidation next week.

Market negative factors, the waste paper market fell back, and the cost support weakened; The market demand is insufficient and the consumption is lack of strong support; The overhaul of the paper mill was completed, and the output increased significantly. Under the specific background that inventory pressure still exists, the operating pressure of paper mills is still high.

MEILIN

Imported wood pulp:

Futures market: This week, the wood pulp market was in a horizontal order. As of today, the main closing price of 2301 contract is 6772 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.56%. The volatility of futures market combined with the low intention of receiving goods in the downstream, the deadlock of high price transaction, and the narrow volatility of spot market. The international supply is disturbed or normalized, and the shortage of wood pulp supply has not been substantially improved. However, the RMB exchange rate continues to depreciate, the possibility of pulp price falling is low, and the short-term pulp price fluctuates at a high level.

Spot market: for needle pulp, the market turnover is weak. The downstream paper mills hold a wait-and-see attitude and keep purchasing on demand. The traders hold limited quantity of spot goods and are reluctant to sell at low prices. The market turnover is tepid. With reference to mainstream quotation Silver Star 7500 yuan/ton, Moon, Horse, Lion 7530 yuan/ton, Pacific 7400 yuan/ton, Kellip 7900 yuan/ton, Beimu 7950 yuan/ton, West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. recently announced that its Cariboo pulp and paper mill in Quesnel will stop production for 16 days; Broad leaved pulp, the market price of broad leaved pulp has decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week. Recently, the varieties arriving in Hong Kong have increased slightly. The recent resurgence of the epidemic is bad for the market demand. The reference quotation for Shandong market is 6800 yuan/ton for parrot and goldfish, 6800-6850 yuan/ton for old stars, and 6750-6780 yuan/ton for other types of broad leaved pulp; Natural color paste, the market of natural color paste just needs to purchase, and the actual order is actually discussed. The reference quotation of Venus is 6800 yuan/ton, and that of Venus in South China is 6900 yuan/ton; Chemical mechanical pulp and chemical mechanical pulp market are in short supply, and supply and demand are weak. With reference to the quotation of Kunhe 5450 yuan/ton, the Taloy Pulp Factory may restart the factory next spring due to railway transportation problems.

MEILIN

Spot market of imported wood pulp