Downstream stock increase Paper industry enters seasonal peak season

The papermaking industry has entered the traditional seasonal peak season, and the downstream stock volume has increased recently. According to the production and sales data disclosed by paper enterprises, some leading enterprises have seen a certain volume of production and sales, while the prices of corrugated paper, cardboard and other products have rebounded.

Further improvement of concentration

According to the business data released by Shanying International, the sales volume of domestic paper industry in September was 553300 tons, up 10.22% year on year, with an average price of 3553.23 yuan/ton, down 11.22% year on year; From January to September, the sales volume was 4.2613 million tons, down 1.66% year on year, and the average price was 3877.02 yuan/ton, down 1.47% year on year. The sales volume of packaging products in September was 186 million square meters, up 4.53% year on year, with an average price of 3.53 yuan/square meter, down 5.2% year on year; From January to September, the sales volume was 1.606 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, and the average price was 3.9 yuan/square meter, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%.

A relevant person in charge of a leading enterprise of corrugated paper and cardboard told the China Securities Journal that the price of raw materials rose in the first half of the year. Since the demand did not keep up, the price of corrugated paper and cardboard did not keep up, and the profit per ton fell back from a high of 1000 yuan to about 300 yuan. The fourth quarter is the traditional sales peak season of corrugated paper and cardboard, and the stock of corrugated paper and cardboard increased by downstream customers such as express delivery.

The above-mentioned people said that due to capital and other factors, small corrugated paper and cardboard enterprises have gradually withdrawn from the market. Large paper mills have gained greater market share through mergers and acquisitions, and industry concentration has been further enhanced. In order to meet the needs of downstream express delivery and other industries, many large factories have made lightweight improvements to corrugated paper and cardboard. Due to capital and other factors, small factories are difficult to compete with large factories to seize the market.

A person in charge of a listed company in the paper industry in Shandong told the China Securities News that, since this year, due to multiple factors, the terminal consumption demand has been relatively weak, bringing greater pressure to the packaging industry. The recovery of demand in the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter remains to be observed.

Improvement of supply and demand pattern

With the increase of downstream demand, paper enterprises have recently raised the prices of corrugated paper, cardboard and other products by about 50 yuan/ton. Some paper enterprises have carried out two rounds of price increase since the end of September, with a cumulative increase of 100 yuan/ton.

Cheng Jiaojiao, an analyst of Baichuan Yingfu Paper Products, told China Securities News that the overall demand of the paper industry had improved in October. The order of paper enterprises has gradually warmed up, and the shipping speed has been accelerated. In the context of improved demand, the paper enterprises have a firm attitude towards price fixing. With the end of e-commerce stock orders and the commencement of mainstream paper mills, the prices of corrugated paper, cardboard and other products may fluctuate.

Galaxy Securities believes that leading paper enterprises frequently shut down in the third quarter, reducing the supply of finished paper, and promoting the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the industry. Recently, a number of paper enterprises have issued price increase letters. The price of finished paper has been boosted. The profitability of related enterprises is expected to improve. They are optimistic that the performance of listed paper enterprises will continue to repair in the second half of the year.